Did Google just plain lie to the world about AI Overviews?

Welcome to the latest edition of the Future Media podcast. Today, I’m seeking to answer the single most important question on the open web.

AI is coming fast but today the lifeblood of the open web remains the traffic from Google’s monopoly on search, and the revenue from its monopoly on ads.

Google promised that its new AI Overviews replacement for search would send content creators more traffic and be good for plurality on the open web.

So, did it?

And given that four in five global publishers and most of the open web relies on Google to be seen and to be paid, it’s a multi-trillion-dollar existential question.

So, did Google tell the truth? Or lie yet again in its continued and relentless pursuit of publisher revenues? This is where we find out.

First, welcome to new subs from LinkedIn, Time Out, men’s lifestyle site Boss Hunting, culture compass Urban List, more faces from The Trade Desk, contextual discovery platform Trendii, big-end-of-town VCs Square Peg and Airtree (both of you in one weekend??!), and $31 billion real estate mega-giant REA, who are probably the only people who can still afford a home…

And hi up there to Airspeeder, the world’s first electric flying car series. F1 in the sky… 🛸

Plus:

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Join me and former Bauer CEO and Times MD Chris Duncan on Substack LIVE this Friday at 7pm Australian time, 8am UK, for the latest ep of Scotch and Watch.

This week we’re diving into Meta’s divorce from the news industry, why it failed, what can be learned, and expose the real truth about why it’s such an anti-social network.

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Now back to the pod where I’m joined by Alan Chapell, the host of podcast the Monopoly Report, renowned privacy lawyer and ad tech aficionado, and trusted advisor to multiple media giants.

And also, by long-time friend of Future Media Laurence O’Toole from the global SEO analysis firm Authoritas.

Laurence has spent 20 years as a Google-whisperer, analysing how the world's default engine works, and how it monetises or otherwise - the web for thousands of firms.

Last year, I joined forced with him, as well as the Daily Mail, the UK's Trinity Mirror, Hearst, Press Gazette, and Mi-3 in Australia, to do the first assessment of the impact AI Overviews would have on premium web traffic and ad revenue.

That landmark study set a baseline for searches on news articles and products, across more than 3,000 keywords, which remains the benchmark for many publishers and major agencies today.

Today, we are all back for an update and to share insights on where the future of search might be headed.

And from that, the fate of the entire ad-funded open web as Google doubles down on a future where it makes and keeps more of the traffic - and shares less of the spoils.

Let’s get to it…

Laurence, let’s start with the simple question at the heart of the issue. Google has repeatedly claimed that AI Overviews will deliver more traffic to publishers. What’s the data showing?